In 2014/15, world cotton production is expected to remain stable at 26.2 million tons despite a 3% increase in area. Cotton area in China fell 9% to 4.3 million hectares, production is forecast down (-400 thous. tons) to 6.5 million tons. In India, production remain at 6.8 million tons and India has become the world’s largest producer of cotton. Production of cotton in United States is projected up 27% to 3.6 million tons. Production in Pakistan is stable at 2.1 million tons in 2014/15 with better yields offsetting the decrease in area. These four producers account for 80% of the production in the North Hemisphere, which is projected up 2% to 23 million tons. Area in the Southern Hemisphere is projected down 12% to 3 million hectares, the lowest level in last five seasons, production is anticipated to fall 18% to 2.6 million tons. In Brazil production is projected down 13% to 1.5 million tons. The ongoing drought in Australia has dried up the soil and reduced irrigation supplies –
production could decrease by 35% to 580,000 tons, the lowest volume since 2009/10.
World cotton consumption is expected to recover by 3.8% to 24.4 million tons. The top five consumers of cotton in 2014/15 are likely to be China, India, Pakistan, Turkey and Bangladesh. In China consumption is forecast to increase to nearly 8 million tons. However, this would still be less than the annual volume of consumption observed between 2004/05 and 2012/13, when annual
consumption averaged around 9.5 million tons. India’s consumption is projected at 5.3 million tons, which is the third consecutive season of growth. In Pakistan, consumption is forecast to rise 2% to 2.3 million tons after a 6% reduction in 2013/14 due to insufficient electricity. Consumption in Turkey is projected up 4% to 1.5 million tons in 2014/15 while consumption in Bangladesh is up 1% to 954,000 tons.
World cotton trade is forecast down nearly 1 million tons to 7.9 million tons, which is the third
consecutive season in which world imports have fallen. This is in line with the fall in China’s imports from over 5.3 million tons in 2011/12 to less than 2 million tons in 2014/15. Imports outside of China are projected to expand 4% to 5.9 million tons, reflecting the growth in consumption outside of China. Bangladesh, Turkey, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to be the largest importers outside of China in 2014/15.